In China’s Search for a Grand Strategy (Foreign Affairs・March/April 2011), Wang Jisi, who is Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, is obviously the chosen point man to present the kinder, gentler “it’s gonna be OK, don’t worry, be happy” face of China to the rest of us.
One of Wang’s primary arguments for explaining away China’s belligerence on the high sees, see for example the harassment of USNS Impeccable in international waters being one of the more minor incidents, is the need of the Chinese leadership to pander to the rabid nationalism it has created. In a country where free political debate is censored, nationalism is one of the few outlets. Now this monster has been released it must be pacified, leading to public hyperventilation and hyperbole and adolescent bullying on the seas.
Tuesday’s release of Japan’s 37th White Paper however gets to grips with the real issue at hand- China’s claims to sovereign rights and jurisdiction over its Exclusive Economic Zone. This key issue is a recipe for disaster. Coping with it will be a major task in hand for the U.S.-Japan Alliance until China implodes.
- The story remains the same…
In any case, here is the full article:
By PAUL KALLENDER-UMEZU TOKYO — Japan’s new defense white paper hints at an expectation of long-term declines in U.S. military and economic strength and reflects an unprecedented level of concern about China.
“China’s future actions are worrisome, given what can be interpreted as its overbearing ways to address its clashing interests with neighboring countries, including Japan,” says the Aug. 2 paper by the Ministry of Defense (MoD), titled “Defense of Japan 2011.” Chinese government officials were quick to respond in Japanese media reports. Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, criticized “irresponsible comments,” while Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng accused Japan of deliberately exaggerating a “China threat.” At issue is the Japanese word “koatsuteki,” which can also be translated as “assertive,” and is used in an unofficial translation of the white paper to describe Japan’s concerns about China’s military modernization and expanding maritime reach, said Jun Okumura, adviser at the Eurasia Group here.
“The MoD merely said what everyone had on their minds,” Okumura said. “The Chinese side responded in kind.” Okumura said Tokyo would be remiss not to comment on recent provocations by the Chinese Navy, including multiple incursions into Japanese territorial waters by destroyers and nuclear-powered submarines, and the “buzzing” of vessels and airspace. All this comes after China’s 20-year military buildup and a quadrupling of military spending in the last decade.
Analysts said much of the paper’s language and approach echo longstanding themes: It calls the U.S. Japan alliance “indispensable,” warns of cyber attacks, and so on.
“It is very much in line with what you would expect in a year with a revised NDPG,” the National Defense Program Guidelines released in December, said Christopher Hughes, a professor of international politics and Japanese studies at Britain’s University of Warwick.
But the paper also mentions a “global shift in the balance of power” — code for potential long-term U.S. military and economic decline.
A reference to territorial disputes, though brief, is ominous, according to Peter Woolley, a professor of comparative politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey.
“Japan is geographically surrounded by water and has a long coastline and numerous islands,” Woolley said. “Invasion of these islands can be anticipated as one form of armed attack. Any Japanese reader knows very well that the retreat of U.S. influence, to be replaced by that of new actors, is problematic and complex for Japan.” South Korea is complaining about Tokyo’s claims on the Sea of Japan islands that Seoul calls Dokdo.
The paper also notes that China plans to expand its maritime activities. That reflects growing Japanese and U.S. concern about Beijing’s claims to sovereign rights and jurisdiction over its Exclusive Economic Zone, said James Manicom, a naval expert at Canada’s Balsillie School of International Affairs. “I don’t think the tone is that surprising,” Manicom said. “The most important difference as it relates to maritime issues is the addition of China’s interpretation of international law as a subject of concern.” The paper reflects concern about North Korea’s new Musudan ballistic missile, which can hit Guam, and other threats, said Alessio Patalano, an expert on Japanese military issues at Kings College, London.
“The sinking of the Cheonan, the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, China’s aircraft and carrier programs, are other examples. Japan’s response was clear and sought to underline the potential risk presented by the missile programs of North Korea, and by China’s evolving behavior at sea,” Patalano said.
The paper also contains a 13-page section on the March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake, lauding the U.S. response that included about 16,000 troops, 15 vessels and 140 aircraft.
The aid operation “looms large because it is important to a beleaguered Japanese public, because Japan is genuinely grateful and prepared to say so,” Woolley said.