Category: Michibiki


SHSP Decision on New Space Agency Delayed a Month

Filed Under: Japan space development, Japan space militarization, Japan space program, Michibiki, QZSS, SHSP, 未分類 by admin — コメントする
2011年8月10日

The decision on the shape of the new space agency (origially called the 宇宙庁) in the original Matsui Plan has been stalled again by last-minute haggling as MEXT mounts a last-ditch battle to stop ceeding budget and programmatic authority to the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office, according to Takafumi Matsui, architect of the plan, in an interview yesterday (Tuesday August 9). It was quite spooky to interview Matsui Sensei in the offices of the IIPS in Toranomon knowing that a major bureaucratic battle between MEXT, METI and the CO was taking place a scant 500 meters or so away in Kasumigaseki proper- a battle completely ignored by the mainstream press but covered in Japan’s gutsy shukanzasshi (weeklies).

As I pointed out last week in How will the SHSP’s Next-Gen Space Plan Unfold? August 8 was supposed to be Change You Can Believe In day when the SHSP was to finalize the transfer of power of authority of the QZSS system development to the CO along with the budgetary powers to complete it, largely at the expense of MEXT. According to Matsui Sensei, MEXT is going down fighting and it is unclear whether the deal will go through.

As I pointed out last time,   June 30′s  政府の宇宙開発利用体制の在り方について(案) represents a compromise- originally the 宇宙庁 was to have complete control of space policy and budget, but according to Matsui Sensei, it represents a stealth-step in the right direction. If the plan works, then the CO will have seized control of Japan’s largest ever space infrastructure project, involving the building of a 7 or 8 satellite constellation of Michibiki satellites that will provide sub-1 meter positioning and emergency communications and as yet undisclosed (to be worked out- nothing sinister) functions.

For those of you familiar with the QZSS project, the CO taking charge is both a practical solution and a master stroke all at once, removing the in-fighting that has plagued the project for the best part of a decade and firmly putting the CO in charge of space national security and public infrastructure.

Meanwhile the General Space Activities budget is due for a savage beating, with the DPJ trying to enforce a 30% cut in some science and technology fighting. The Basic Plan for Space Policy of June 2009- take a look at page 8,  looks to have been reduced to administrative 瓦礫　(gareki= rubble).

To see how things pan out, watch this space!

 

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Moving Beyond A Zero-Sum Military Space Game

Filed Under: ASNARO, Epsilon, IGS, In Defense of Japan, Japan ASAT, Japan BMD, Japan Spysats, Japan space development, Japan space militarization, M-V, Michibiki, 未分類 by admin — コメントする
2011年2月14日

I  just filed a Military Space Special for Space News last week and am giving an update here. What I have done is to copy an early version of the story below (which has a few more details than the SN version) and some comments and background.

Basically, I recently conducted a sit-down with three director-level MoD personnel who did a good job of convincing me that the MoD is very interested in military space development but feels its hands are tied  as long as it continues to face a zero-sum budget game. I stress that this was not said to me directly by the MoD who stressed that the MoD’s budget has held up despite huge pressures on the DPJ to cut due to fiscal pressures.

After talking to industry, however, there is very deep dissatisfaction with the slow pace of movement. Nobody is saying that the DPJ has reneged on the commitments made by the Basic Space Law, but it does appear that military space is drifting in neutral until budget is found. Nobody is being blamed. However, it is clear that the leadership, clear command and budget lines that were supposed to have been introduced by now, are absent.

Until the SHSP or the new Space Agency materializes and budget according to the 「ニーズに対応した５年間の衛星等の開発利用計画（１０年程度を視野（案)」as promoted by the Basic Space Law, no specific budget lines can be drawn up for the MoD, or by the MoD, and this seems to be the single biggest factor stopping more concrete progress.

1. Japan is forging ahead with IGS

In an interview with the CSIC, the one sure bet is that Japan will continue plowing money into  IGS. It’s a bit of a Melco money pit, this one, by very efficient Japanese standards, and the system has been plagued by troubles. The first generation optical satellites that have not been performing to spec- let’s hope they could at least resolve buildings, and the radar satellites have been winking off with that old bane of Melco satellites- electrical problems. (Please bear in mind, thought, that compared to spiraling procurement costs of many U.S. military procurement programs, the IGS emerges as freshly laundered as a blouse in a soap suds TV commercial!)

Anyway, hopefully these issues can be ironed out. The new generation of optical satellites should function at 60cm resolution and the new test optical satellite going up next year should be another big leap forward, given that GeoEye-2,  has a planned resolution of 25 cm  (9.8 in) it would be surprising if NEC and Goodrich couldn’t get at least half way to that. Afterall, ASNARO is looking at 50 cm or so. Given that NEC’s Daichi/ALOS satellite is the basis for the optical system for IGS, and NEC is integrating ASNARO, you can draw your own conclusions about the clarity of IGS’s future vision.

Here is the opening of the story:

Japan’s reconnaissance program continues to burgeon while military space program faces a series of difficult choices, according to a series of interviews with officials in the Prime Ministers Cabinet Office and Ministry of Defense (MOD).

Japan’s Information Gathering Satellite program, known as IGS, will see the launch launching of 10 satellites by 2018, including an extra radar satellite, an official at the Cabinet Satellite Intelligence Center (CSIC) said February 7.

One optical and one radar satellite will be launched fiscal 2011 and a radar satellite and a technology test satellite for future higher-capability optical satellites in fiscal 2012; fiscal 2014 will see the launch of a further optical satellite and an “extra” radar satellite. A further optical and radar satellite will be launched in fiscal 2016, and the CSIC is now planning to request the launch of a radar satellite in 2017, “assuming we get the budget to do so,” the official said. Japan’s fiscal year runs April through March.

IGS is designed to function as a fleet of two radar and two optical satellites, but the November 2003 destruction of an H-2A rocket and IGS-2A and 2B and the early failures of two radar satellites (IGS-1B) in  March 2007  and IGS-4A in August 2010 have left fleet with only two operational satellites.

As a hedge against future service interruption, Japan decided in October to launch an extra radar satellite and boost CISC’s budget to cover the satellite’s development costs, the official said.

“Yes, we have enough budget to include the extra satellite, although at the moment the plan is continue to maintain a basic four satellite system for the foreseeable future,” the official said.

2. MoD is Pushing Out Development Budgets for Military Space Programs Until 2015 or So

Here is part 2 of the original story:

Japan’s Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, is taking a cautious approach to space acquisition, weighing its needs against what it can afford, according to officials who spoke to Space News on condition of anonymity.

The Ministry of Defense was formally barred from building space systems until 2008 when Japan’s Basic Space Law overrode a 1969 resolution committing Japan to use space exclusively for peaceful purposes.

In addition to making space programs fair game for the Ministry of Defense, the Basic Space Law called for restructuring control of Japan’s space-development budgets and programs away from competing ministries and into a single cabinet-level agency. The 2008 law also called for Japan to double its space spending between 2010 and 2020 and to pursue programs that contribute to its national security.

In response to this direction, the Ministry of Defense in 2009 released a report detailing a long list of space programs it might be interested in developing.

Commentary: According to the MoD’s Basic Guidelines for Space Development and Use of Space of January 15, 2009 by the Committee on Promotion of Space Development and Use, Ministry of Defense of Japan the MoD would look into just about everything except throwing Auntie Maud’s old boot stuffed with a bag o’nails up in orbit, including- more and better spy satellites, space-based early warning for BMD, a dedicated communications satellite, a SIGINT satellite (no doubt using ETS-8), Space Situational Awareness capabilities (seat belts and rear view mirrors?), microsatellites (ahem) satellite protection (wow- defensive counterspace already!) a dedicated LV (Epsilon, or I’ll eat my hat) and QZSS for, well, I’ll bet you can hazard a very, very accurate guess….

Kiku-8: Listening in on the Neighbors Soon? Perhaps not!

However, the Japan’s latest National Defense Program Guidelines – a planning document produced every five years — is much less specific. The document, approved by the Security Council in December, focuses on the ministry’s role in developing military space programs aimed at bolstering the nation’s space-based surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

For now, officials said, the Ministry of Defense is researching when and if to develop a series of capabilities, including its own space-based early warning system, a signals intelligence satellite, a communications satellite, reconnaissance satellites and experimental microsatellites. But with so many decisions to be thought through, these officials said, the ministry will hold off on starting any development programs until 2016, when the next five-year Defense Program Guidelines is due.

For example, the Ministry of Defense is questioning whether it can afford and really needs a space-based infrared missile warning satellite for its fleet of Aegis cruisers and Patriot missile batteries, according to one official.

“When we consider a cost-benefit analysis [of a space-based early warning system] we should consider the U.S.-Japan relationship,” the official said Feb. 8. “We get enough data from the U.S., so we should find out exactly what new capabilities we could get from our own satellite. If we can get appreciable benefit and if we think it is affordable, then we can consider development.”

Part of the issue for the defense ministry’s conservatism is concern about future budgets, said Satoshi Tsuzukibashi, director of the Office of Defense Production at the Japan Business Federation.

Thirty months after enactment of the Basic Space Law, Japan has yet to form a new agency to coordinate national space programs and the sought after budget increased have yet to materialize. “The most difficult problem is budget. If there is a specific budget provided for the [Ministry of Defense], the [ministry] will move ahead and promote its space programs without troubling its commitments to land, air and marine forces,” Tsuzukibashi said Feb. 9.

Commentary: MoD is playing a waiting game: here are the major points I gleaned that are publishable

Even Stage I (2013-17) Epsilon will be the Best Solid Rocket in History

1. Communications: Current transponders on Superbirds, B2, D and C  are facing end-of life issues as satellites are retiring. Building a dedicated communications satellite is still under cost-benefit analysis

2. Sigint: This really got the MoD cautious. I will leave you to draw your own conclusions. However, preliminary studies are looking into the feasibility and need for this and the possibility of Japan using a satellite is under study and not ruled out.

3. ASNARO: MoD will consider it IF it works. That’s as far as they would go. ASNARO seems sure to get money for ODA for at least Vietnam and maybe Cambodia. I’m still optimistic that this dual use technology will prove alluring for MoD. At least its a hedge.

4. No surprise here: MoD likes Epsilon. And who couldn’t. It’s great! Even Stage I (2013 Phase 1) Epsilon will be the best solid rocket ever made and for only $200 million. Prof. Yasuhiro Morita is such a genius! Just wait till Phase II is out.

5. SM3 Block IIA is on target and on course, and I believe it’s Japan’s involvement that is helping this to happen. It seems to me to be no accident that the the most successful element in BMD is the part where Japanese companies are supplying the cutting edge components. Bloody hell, the version out now can knock out satellites, functioning as a direct ascent ASAT, just with a software shuffle. I can’t imagine how scared Japan’s neighbors are when they realize just how far they are behind!

6. MoD continues to study microsatellites, what kind of satellites and their potential applications, and that is all that it will say right now. On the other hand the sterling work being up and down Japan in UNISEC and related laboratories, and the plethora of dual use technologies being developed, as well as the guaranteed budget  for Japan’s micro/nano/picosatellite development programs means that the MoD is sitting on a goldmine of talent and experience here. Purely accidentally, of course.

It’s time for the SHSP to show us the money ;-)

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Japanese GPS: Next Milspace Step becomes “Official Reality”

Filed Under: Japan space militarization, Japan space program, Michibiki by admin — コメントする
2011年1月6日

The AFP this week has followed up  the Yomiuri story about Japan building its own GPS system, quoting an anonymous official in the SHSP.  What’s actually interesting about the story however is:

a) There is significant language drift and change in the the presentation of the information. It’s interesting to see that mainstream media is stressing the independence of the Michibiki. But ever since I was briefed on in in CRL labs in the mid 1990s, I’ve always understood it as a separate  or independent GPS system. At least the Yomiuri is acknowledging its real strategic purpose as a regional GPS system.

The launch of the Michibiki fleet is the critical technological building block for when and when Japan does decide to deploy a strategic military space system involving JDAMs, troop and ship guidance and control. Of course, then missile guidance is a matter of course. Remember this  in addition to the already announced plans to develop independent Early Warning, military communications, signit and SSA capabilities by the MOD , and plans to build a supplemental dual-use spy satellite constellation test bed (ASNARO) by METI, along with ORS capabilities led by Epsilon and attempts later to develop air-launch and SLBM technology by METI via its military space technology implementing agency USEF  (see Quis custodiet ipsos database administrators? ).

It was quite gratifying for the Yomiuri to be quite open about this fundamental step. Remember back in the mid-90s then then STA and JAXA, supported by Melco and CRL were strongly pushing independent GPS, but were leaned on by the U.S. and then hauled in to make sure the system was properly consulted. The QZSS saga is one of the more eventful and interesting stories of Japan’s space development where strategic technology development interests that I don’t have time to go into here, but is outlined in In Defense of Japan. For more details, I have articles in Space News going back to 1996. I recall meetings of meeting grumpy STA official grumbling about the frequency with which the U.S. was jamming things up: clipped wings? Golden cage? Background noise?

But remember, the key point is that originally what is now Michibiki was always seen as an independent Japanese GPS system even it was not characterized as such in the media or Japan’s space literature, for various purposes. In fact I remember attending SAC committee reviews of the  (now defunct) ASBC consortium’s attempts to sell the QZSS system for its business and broadcasting functionality  back in the early 2000s and noting how obviously facile and see-through they were. The purpose of Japan’s GPS is security first, security second, and security third.

b) The second suprise was the numbers. We have the Yomiuri quoting as many as six or seven satellites, whereas only four are needed to get the 15cm to 1 meter accuracy needed. In fact the Basic Law is pretty vague on the number. There was a tremendous battle fought in 2008 by Meclo and Keidanren to get the projected numbers up to over five and it’s interesting to see that the government is quoting that Melco can knock a DS2000 bus tweaked for Michibiki off the Kamakura production line for 35 billion yen a pop. The main worry for me is if Melco has sorted out its power systems troubles that have affected several satellites downt the years including 2 IGS radar spysats and Midori-2. Let’s hope those junctions and batteries are double checked.

I’ll be posting a story on the H.22 space budget and MOD’s latest plans for miltiarizaton of space soon.

c) In a comcomitant article by the Yomiuri the talk of Michibiki being an Asian Standard when China has already launched its own 8-constellation military system. I attribute the Yomiuri’s rhetoric on this as a combination of window dressing and wishful thinking. The wounded national psyche so gently portrayed by Prof. Kenneth B.  Pyle in Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose appears to be coming into play here with the idea of a competition to be an Asian standard. There are a lot of things I could say, but in line with the main arguments of In Defense of Japan, it does not really matter because the strategic Michibiki technology development program will go ahead anyway.

d) Finally, finally, oh finally, it appears that after two years of solid stalling by MEXT to defend its turf and confusion and lack of leadership by the DPJ, the need for a comprehensive space bill to allow for the possibility of PFI financing is being talked about. There are a couple of things that I shy away from in discussing Japan’s space development- unless someone pays me to specifically write about it; one the ISS and the other is what ever happened to the comprehensive space bill that was supposed to be inacted within two years of the Basic Space Law. Well, the answers lie the opening line of this paragraph, namely MEXT intransigence,  which covers a lot of other sins as well.

Over the summer when I asked Mr. Maehara (see Personal interview with Seiji Maehara) his opinion on when the comprehensive space law would come into effect, I could see his eyes glaze over even though he had already been prepared by his handlers with the appropriate burueaucratic response. Now that the Yomiuri is back on the case, it would seem that the process of actually completing the burueaucratic and administrative path set by the Basic Space Bill may gain some traction, at last.

But remember folks, it really doesn’t matter because the militarization of Japan’s space development is on automatic and it’ s not going to stop.

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First Royalties Notice from Stanford University Press!

Filed Under: ETS-VII, Hyflex, In Defense of Japan, Michibiki, Orihime and Hikoboshi by admin — コメントする
2010年9月22日
Well its nice to see the book on sale and the nice comments I have gotten from friends and family. On the other hand it was nice to get a sales report and royalty notice from SUP.

Several media have noted interest in the book and it’s going to be reviewed by one major media organization (thanks Dave!) While a little bit of media coverage is great, this was not our target audience. Basically the way to change perceptions is to change the input, so this means academia in the U.S. So gradually I hope our messages will filter down that far from being some sort of parochial science and technology boondoggle or vanity project to show Japan as a major economic and technological power, (which of course it is all of that as well) Japan’s space development program is a strategic hedge and recessed deterrent that has been exquisitely successful in making sure that Japan is up to speed on each major space technology development paradigm shift.

Many development programs are framed in contexts that mask their deeper roles through their sheer obviousness. For example, ORS in Japan is called SOD.

Japan developed an automatic, hypersonic space plane more than 15 years ago and successfully tested it. Unlike the U.S. This sort of technology is busily being tested by DARPA, in the shape of the HTV-2. A bomber is currently a high priority in strategic technologies the Pentagon wants to develop. But the event in Japan was largely masked by the fact that it was supposed to be a technology demonstrator for Japan’s ill-named space shuttle program. I say, well, just as much as Japan didn’t get a space shuttle, it did get its core data and demonstrate key technologies. Oh, you may have forgotten that Hyflex was launched on top of a “rocket” which U.S. planners have basically called a dead ringer for an ICBM. What other country could demonstrate ASAT technologies in terms of star struck lovers or warhead reentry technologies are presented as a wok?

So indeed we turn to last week’s launch of Michibiki, basically a Melco /CRL sponsored program that I have been monitoring for 15 years, about the time when the old STA was openly calling for Japan to have its own GPS system. There is almost no need for Japan to spend $2-3 billion on developing a fleet of GPS-augment systems. Just about everybody knows where everything is in Japan anyway in terms of structures, and highly accurate handheld positioning can be gotten for nothing as a ubiquitous service on keitai. So what pray, is the need for Japan to have 1-meter accuracy (the original proposals were for cm-level accuracy)?

What indeed, eh….

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